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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-98  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 6:10 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

76-86  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.77 -- 1.0 1
Andres Munoz None-None 1.47 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.77 ERA Ldr 1.47
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
43%
📊
MARINERS
57%
ATHLETICS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

53.8%

Mariners Cover

46.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.0%

ATH By 3-4 runs

14.7%

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.11
ATHLETICS
5.73
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Athletics (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Mariners (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SEA @ ATH 7 - 8
Sep 12, 2026 SEA @ ATH 19 - 1
Sep 11, 2026 SEA @ ATH 5 - 6
Sep 6, 2026 ATH @ SEA 0 - 2
Sep 5, 2026 ATH @ SEA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.719 ▲
OPS
.693
194 ▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +28.2% more
Athletics: 8.9 vs Seattle: 6.4
Hits (L5) +27.0% more
Athletics: 9.8 vs Seattle: 7.1
Total Bases (L5) +21.0% more
Athletics: 17.2 vs Seattle: 13.6
Home Runs (L5) +17.2% more
Athletics: 1.6 vs Seattle: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 6.1 2
SEA Score 5.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.8 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.6 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 8.9 11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 17.2 14.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.0 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SEA Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
ATH
SEA
ATH
ML
50% 81-81
59% 95-67
52% 85-77
54% 87-74
ATS
60% 98-64
52% 84-78
59% 95-67
50% 81-80
TTL
56% 85-67-10
54% 84-73-5
53% 81-71-10
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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