Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

100-62  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 5:40 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

91-71  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
Mason Miller None-None 3.42 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 3.42
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
51%
📊
PADRES
49%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

51.7%

Padres Cover

48.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.1%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.57
LOS ANGELES
5.4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +25.8% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs San Diego: 1.2
Total Bases (L5) +11.5% more
Los Angeles: 17.3 vs San Diego: 15.3
Hits (L5) +8.6% more
Los Angeles: 10.0 vs San Diego: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.6 1
SD Score 5.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 10.0 7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 7.3 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 17.3 8.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.9 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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