CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
75-87 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-76 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Morillo
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 3.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Juan Morillo | None-None | 4.31 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.04 Ldr
ERA
4.31
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
REDS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
19.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
12.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
6.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
6.51
CINCINNATI
Arizona
4.01
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.5
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
CIN @ ARI
3 - 5
Aug 22, 2026
CIN @ ARI
11 - 5
Aug 21, 2026
CIN @ ARI
0 - 9
Jun 14, 2026
ARI @ CIN
5 - 3
Jun 13, 2026
ARI @ CIN
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.699
OPS
▲
.720
213
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.5% more
Cincinnati: 10.5
vs
Arizona: 7.0
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.4
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Home Runs (Season)
+22.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Arizona: 1.0
vs
Cincinnati: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
6.5
5
ARI Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.9 / 9.0
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 10.5
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 13.9
12.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
CIN
ARI
CIN
ML
54%
87-74
55%
88-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
86-73
56%
89-71
50%
80-80
TTL
52%
80-73-8
53%
81-73-5
49%
73-77-9
54%
83-72-5
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