Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Yankees BOS @ NYY

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 3:05 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 1.08 -- 1.0 2
David Bednar None-None 2.61 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.08 Ldr ERA 2.61
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
50%
📊
YANKEES
50%
RED SOX --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

69.4%

Yankees Cover

30.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.5%

NYY By 1-2 runs

13.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

7.7%

AI Model Projected Score
6.66
BOSTON
4.63
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.409
OPS
▲ 1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +800.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +234.0% more
New York: 3.2 vs Boston: 0.8
Errors (L5) +130.0% more
New York: 1.8 vs Boston: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +67.1% more
New York: 20.9 vs Boston: 12.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 6.7 1
NYY Score 4.6 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 8.2 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 3.2 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 8.1 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 20.9 / 12.5 3.0 / 8.0
Walks 5.0 / 4.3 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
53% 86-76
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-5
53% 82-72-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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