WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
77-85 | Road
5
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | None-None | 2.82 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.82
ERA
Ldr 1.93
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
33%
PHILLIES
67%
NATIONALS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
17.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
12.2%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.1%
PHI By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.69
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
5.16
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+146.0% more
Philadelphia: 2.3
vs
Washington: 0.8
Total Bases (L5)
+83.7% more
Philadelphia: 23.8
vs
Washington: 13.0
Hits (L5)
+75.9% more
Philadelphia: 14.2
vs
Washington: 8.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+69.8% more
Philadelphia: 13.3
vs
Washington: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.7
5
PHI Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
14.2 / 8.1
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
13.3 / 7.8
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
23.8 / 13.0
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.0 / 4.1
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…
A's Seth Johnson Undergoes Knee Surgery, Eyes Spring Training Re…