Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Rays CHW @ TB

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

84-78  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jul 22 • 3:05 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

98-64  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Davis Martin
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Martin

#65 | Starting Pitcher
@
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Davis Martin None-None 3.89 -- 5.0 3
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.48 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.89 ERA Ldr 2.48
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
34%
📊
RAYS
66%
WHITE SOX --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

52.0%

Rays Cover

48.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

18.7%

CHW By 3-4 runs

14.1%

TB By 1-2 runs

18.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.08
CHICAGO
4.88
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
CHICAGO
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI White Sox Loss
34% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 CHW @ TB 9 - 1
Aug 1, 2026 CHW @ TB 0 - 1
Jul 31, 2026 CHW @ TB 6 - 1
Apr 16, 2026 TB @ CHW 5 - 3
Apr 15, 2026 TB @ CHW 8 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Tampa Bay TB
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.258
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.412 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.826 ▲
OPS
.728
1
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +92.3% more
Chicago: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.1
Walks (L5) +51.0% more
Chicago: 4.1 vs Tampa Bay: 2.0
Total Bases (L5) +41.3% more
Chicago: 18.6 vs Tampa Bay: 10.9
Hits (L5) +34.4% more
Chicago: 10.2 vs Tampa Bay: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 5.1 3
TB Score 4.9 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.7 / 10.2 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.7 / 8.7 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.9 / 18.6 5.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.0 / 4.1 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
CHW
TB
CHW
ML
58% 95-68
49% 81-86
58% 95-68
56% 94-73
ATS
60% 97-66
59% 99-68
55% 90-73
56% 93-74
TTL
47% 73-81-9
58% 96-69-2
51% 78-75-10
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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