Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Reds MIN @ CIN

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

77-85  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jun 18 • 3:10 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

75-87  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jose Trevino
STARTING PITCHER

Jose Trevino

#35 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bailey Ober None-None 4.54 -- 5.2 5
Jose Trevino None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.54 ERA --
-- WHIP --
5.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
5 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
100%
📊
REDS
0%
TWINS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

40.0%

Reds Cover

60.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.29
MINNESOTA
5.3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 19, 2026 CIN @ MIN 7 - 4
Apr 18, 2026 CIN @ MIN 5 - 4
Apr 17, 2026 CIN @ MIN 2 - 1
Jun 19, 2025 MIN @ CIN 12 - 5
Jun 18, 2025 MIN @ CIN 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.720 ▲
OPS
.699
187
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +42.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.7 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Hits (L5) +13.9% more
Cincinnati: 8.6 vs Minnesota: 7.5
Home Runs (Season) +13.9% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Walks (L5) +43.5% more
Minnesota: 5.0 vs Cincinnati: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.3 2
CIN Score 5.3 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.5 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 8.0 4.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 13.2 13.0 / 6.0
Walks 2.8 / 5.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
MIN
CIN
MIN
ML
55% 88-71
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
50% 80-81
ATS
54% 86-73
59% 95-67
50% 80-80
59% 95-66
TTL
53% 81-73-5
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-72-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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