Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Wildcats USU @ ARIZ

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

29-7  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sun, Mar 22 • 4:11 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

36-3  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
35%
📊
WILDCATS
65%
AGGIES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

38.2%

Wildcats Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARIZ +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

USU By 1-7 points

27.2%

USU By 8-14 points

20.1%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

21.6%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
84
UTAH STATE
81
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
UTAH STATE
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 22, 2026 USU @ ARIZ 66 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.8% more
Utah State: 7.2 vs Arizona: 5.0
Assists (L5) +17.8% more
Utah State: 17.6 vs Arizona: 14.4
Blocks (L5) +224.3% more
Arizona: 5.7 vs Utah State: 1.8
Rebounding (L5) +20.4% more
Arizona: 42.3 vs Utah State: 35.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 84.0 66
ARIZ Score 81.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.3 / 24.6 41.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.4 / 17.6 8.0 / 14.0
Blocks 5.7 / 1.8 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 49.3 39.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 70.0 69.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 35.1 54.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.0 / 7.2 0.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 9.1 11.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
USU
ARIZ
USU
ML
67% 26-13
49% 17-18
68% 23-11
66% 21-11
ATS
74% 29-10
74% 26-9
68% 23-11
67% 22-11
TTL
56% 22-17
51% 18-17
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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