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VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

27-9  |  Road

72
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 5:02 PM ET
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NEBRASKA

CORNHUSKERSNEB

28-7  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
50%
📊
CORNHUSKERS
50%
COMMODORES --
CORNHUSKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
NEBRASKA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Nebraska)
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 CornhuskersNEB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

30.9%

Cornhuskers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NEB -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NEB)

VAN By 1-7 points

18.6%

VAN By 8-14 points

8.0%

NEB By 1-7 points

27.2%

NEB By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
VANDERBILT
79
NEBRASKA
Simulated Score
VANDERBILT
NEBRASKA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cornhuskers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cornhuskers (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 VAN @ NEB 72 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +40.4% more
Nebraska: 8.0 vs Vanderbilt: 5.7
Assists (L5) +15.2% more
Nebraska: 17.5 vs Vanderbilt: 15.2
Blocks (L5) +46.9% more
Vanderbilt: 2.7 vs Nebraska: 1.4
Free Throw % (L5) +13.3%
Vanderbilt: 88.5% vs Nebraska: 75.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 74.0 72
NEB Score 79.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 38.9 47.0 / 35.0
Assists 17.5 / 15.2 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 1.4 / 2.7 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 46.9 56.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 75.2 / 88.5 70.0 / 58.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 33.3 31.0 / 30.0
Steals 8.0 / 5.7 5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.8 12.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
NEB Advantage
28-7-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
NEB Advantage
19-15-1 (55.9%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NEB
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -6.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
VAN
NEB
VAN
ML
51% 18-17
69% 25-11
62% 21-13
56% 18-14
ATS
54% 19-16
78% 28-8
62% 21-13
56% 18-14
TTL
63% 22-13
58% 21-15
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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