Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Horned Frogs @ Blue Devils TCU @ DUKE

TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

23-12  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Mar 21 • 1:25 PM ET
Bon Secours Wellness Arena
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

35-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
40%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
60%
HORNED FROGS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Duke)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

38.2%

Blue Devils Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

TCU By 1-7 points

21.6%

TCU By 8-14 points

10.7%

DUKE By 1-7 points

27.2%

DUKE By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
71
TCU
74
DUKE
Simulated Score
TCU
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o140.5 Loss
Proj Total: 145.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 21, 2026 TCU @ DUKE 58 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +11.8% more
Duke: 42.3 vs TCU: 37.8
Free Throw % (L5) +8.7%
Duke: 78.2% vs TCU: 69.6%
Blocks (L5) +40.0% more
TCU: 4.0 vs Duke: 2.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.8%
TCU: 35.2% vs Duke: 29.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 71.0 58
DUKE Score 74.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.4 / 35.2 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.5 / 13.5 17.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.4 / 4.0 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 42.5 55.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 78.2 / 69.6 87.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 42.3 / 37.8 42.0 / 25.0
Steals 5.1 / 5.5 5.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 9.4 / 9.1 17.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
TCU
DUKE
TCU
ML
71% 27-11
74% 26-9
73% 24-9
63% 19-11
ATS
79% 30-8
74% 26-9
73% 24-9
63% 19-11
TTL
47% 18-20
66% 23-12
100% 33-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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