NORTH DAKOTA STATE
BISONNDSU
27-8 | Road
67
MICHIGAN STATE
SPARTANSMSU
27-8 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
BISON
60%
SPARTANS
40%
BISON
--
SPARTANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MICHIGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Michigan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSU)
NDSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
NDSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
MSU By 1-7 points
26.2%
MSU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
North Dakota State
76
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Michigan State
77
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
North Dakota State
NORTH DAKOTA STATE
Michigan State
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spartans
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spartans (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 19, 2026
NDSU @ MSU
67 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.7% more
Michigan State: 3.1
vs
North Dakota State: 2.0
Assists (L5)
+29.6% more
Michigan State: 19.2
vs
North Dakota State: 14.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+13.6%
Michigan State: 79.3%
vs
North Dakota State: 65.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.5%
Michigan State: 39.8%
vs
North Dakota State: 37.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NDSU Score
76.0
67
MSU Score
77.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.8 / 37.3
50.0 / 24.0
Assists
19.2 / 14.8
26.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.1 / 2.0
6.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.7 / 45.2
59.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
79.3 / 65.7
89.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
34.5 / 39.8
35.0 / 23.0
Steals
3.8 / 6.4
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.5 / 10.1
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDSU
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
MSU
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDSU
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
MSU
17-16-2
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
NDSU
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
NDSU
MSU
NDSU
ML
71%
25-10
49%
17-18
61%
20-13
59%
20-14
ATS
71%
25-10
54%
19-16
61%
20-13
59%
20-14
TTL
49%
17-18
43%
15-20
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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