Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Saints @ Blue Devils SIE @ DUKE

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

23-12  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 11:00 AM ET
Bon Secours Wellness Arena
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

35-3  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
30%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
70%
SAINTS --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Duke)
SaintsSIE (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

13.6%

Blue Devils Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

SIE By 1-7 points

9.3%

SIE By 8-14 points

2.7%

DUKE By 1-7 points

21.6%

DUKE By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SIENA
79
DUKE
Simulated Score
SIENA
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Devils (+28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 SIE @ DUKE 65 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +85.7% more
Duke: 6.1 vs Siena: 3.3
Field Goal % (L5) +2.3%
Duke: 43.6% vs Siena: 41.4%
Blocks (L5) +62.6% more
Siena: 5.6 vs Duke: 2.1
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Siena: 83.4% vs Duke: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SIE Score 68.0 65
DUKE Score 79.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.6 / 33.2 19.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.7 / 14.2 11.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.1 / 5.6 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.6 / 41.4 41.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.4 / 83.4 86.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 40.6 43.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.1 / 3.3 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 10.9 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SIE
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
DUKE
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
SIE
DUKE
SIE
ML
71% 27-11
66% 23-12
73% 24-9
48% 16-17
ATS
79% 30-8
66% 23-12
73% 24-9
48% 16-17
TTL
47% 18-20
54% 19-16
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Duke Demolishes Belmont by 40 in Preseason Blowout
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Gerry McNamara Vows to Bring Syracuse Basketball Back to Nationa…
espn 1 day, 5 hours ago
Cayden Boozer's Return to Duke: Trusting the Vision in a Loaded …
si 1 day, 17 hours ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Indiana Hoosiers Fans Invade Rutgers Homecoming as Hoosiers Roll…
app 5 days ago