Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hawks @ Rams JOES @ CSU

SAINT JOSEPH'S

HAWKSJOES

24-12  |  Road

69
FINAL
Wed, Mar 18 • 7:05 PM ET
Moby Arena
View Odds Details →

COLORADO STATE

RAMSCSU

21-13  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
45%
📊
RAMS
55%
HAWKS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
COLORADO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HawksJOES (-3.5) 0 RamsCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

27.4%

Rams Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CSU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CSU)

JOES By 1-7 points

26.8%

JOES By 8-14 points

24.3%

CSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

CSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
SAINT JOSEPH'S
72
COLORADO STATE
Simulated Score
SAINT JOSEPH'S
COLORADO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rams (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 18, 2026 JOES @ CSU 69 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +28.6% more
Saint Joseph's: 3.2 vs Colorado State: 2.3
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
Saint Joseph's: 38.2 vs Colorado State: 30.2
Steals (L5) +33.6% more
Colorado State: 5.5 vs Saint Joseph's: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +26.4% more
Colorado State: 12.8 vs Saint Joseph's: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JOES Score 78.0 69
CSU Score 72.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 35.3 23.0 / 30.0
Assists 15.2 / 15.8 12.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.3 / 3.2 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 43.6 36.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 77.1 / 63.7 75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 38.2 36.0 / 41.0
Steals 5.5 / 4.1 6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.8 / 10.1 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
59%MONEY41%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES Advantage
24-12-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
CSU
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES Advantage
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 2.9 ATS +/-: +1.9
CSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.3
CSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CSU
JOES
CSU
JOES
ML
56% 19-15
51% 18-17
65% 20-11
61% 20-13
ATS
62% 21-13
60% 21-14
65% 20-11
61% 20-13
TTL
56% 19-15
54% 19-16
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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