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DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

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121
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 4:47 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

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127
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
55%
📊
THUNDER
45%
NUGGETS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
245.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Oklahoma City)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

38.2%

Thunder Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DEN By 1-7 points

21.6%

DEN By 8-14 points

10.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

27.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
121
DENVER
124
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
DENVER
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.5 Win
Proj Total: 245.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.3% more
Oklahoma City: 4.0 vs Denver: 3.3
Turnovers (L5) +16.3% more
Oklahoma City: 15.9 vs Denver: 13.6
Free Throw % (L5) +11.6%
Oklahoma City: 84.1% vs Denver: 72.6%
Steals (L5) +10.8% more
Oklahoma City: 8.8 vs Denver: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 121.0 121
OKC Score 124.0 127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 36.1 34.0 / 38.0
Assists 26.9 / 29.5 29.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.0 / 3.3 10.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 47.0 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 84.1 / 72.6 85.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 43.0 / 50.0 56.0 / 51.0
Steals 8.8 / 8.0 14.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 15.9 / 13.6 12.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DEN
OKC
DEN
ML
70% 80-34
54% 57-48
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38-2
48% 46-49
55% 47-39
TTL
67% 76-38
54% 56-48-1
100% 95-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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