SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
62-20 | Road
111
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-0 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
SPURS
65%
ROCKETS
35%
SPURS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
229.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
SAN ANTONIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (San Antonio)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SA -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SA)
SA By 1-7 points
2.2%
SA By 8-14 points
8.0%
HOU By 1-7 points
0.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Antonio
128
SAN ANTONIO
Houston
101
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
San Antonio
SAN ANTONIO
Houston
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Spurs
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Spurs (-3)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o220.0
Loss
Proj Total: 229.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
HOU @ SA
120 - 145
Jan 28, 2026
SA @ HOU
111 - 99
Jan 20, 2026
SA @ HOU
106 - 111
Nov 7, 2025
HOU @ SA
110 - 121
Feb 26, 2025
SA @ HOU
106 - 118
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+23.6% more
San Antonio: 6.7
vs
Houston: 5.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.2%
San Antonio: 75.0%
vs
Houston: 70.9%
Steals (L5)
+70.5% more
Houston: 9.6
vs
San Antonio: 5.6
Turnovers (L5)
+35.1% more
Houston: 15.8
vs
San Antonio: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SA Score
128.0
111
HOU Score
101.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.8 / 33.7
35.0 / 23.0
Assists
26.2 / 26.2
23.0 / 28.0
Blocks
5.1 / 6.7
8.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 45.1
39.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
70.9 / 75.0
72.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
49.3 / 44.1
46.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.6 / 5.6
12.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
15.8 / 11.7
14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
SA
HOU
SA
ML
61%
69-44
60%
111-73
59%
51-35
58%
61-44
ATS
62%
70-43
58%
107-76-1
59%
51-35
58%
61-44
TTL
51%
58-55
74%
134-47-3
100%
86-0
100%
105-0
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