TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
21-15 | Road
68
NC STATE
WOLFPACKNCSU
20-14 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
LONGHORNS
60%
WOLFPACK
40%
LONGHORNS
--
WOLFPACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TEX -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-7 points
27.2%
TEX By 8-14 points
20.1%
NCSU By 1-7 points
21.6%
NCSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
73
TEXAS
NC State
70
NC STATE
Simulated Score
Texas
TEXAS
NC State
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Longhorns
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Longhorns (-1)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u158.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
TEX @ NCSU
68 - 66
Nov 26, 2025
NCSU @ TEX
97 - 102
Dec 4, 2024
TEX @ NCSU
63 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+25.1% more
Texas: 11.4
vs
NC State: 8.6
Rebounding (L5)
+10.5% more
Texas: 34.1
vs
NC State: 30.5
Steals (L5)
+65.6% more
NC State: 6.1
vs
Texas: 3.7
Blocks (L5)
+9.9% more
NC State: 4.2
vs
Texas: 3.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
73.0
68
NCSU Score
70.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.4 / 36.2
38.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.8 / 12.0
10.0 / 10.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.8
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 42.3
39.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
81.3 / 79.3
78.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
30.5 / 34.1
33.0 / 45.0
Steals
6.1 / 3.7
8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
8.6 / 11.4
7.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
NCSU
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
NCSU
16-17-1
(48.5%)
Margin: 6.9
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
NCSU
21-13-0
O: 61.8% / U: 38.2%
Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
TEX
NCSU
TEX
ML
59%
20-14
58%
21-15
55%
18-15
56%
19-15
ATS
71%
24-10
56%
20-16
55%
18-15
56%
19-15
TTL
71%
24-10
64%
23-13
100%
33-0
100%
34-0
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