OKLAHOMA
SOONERSOU
21-16 | Road
79
ARKANSAS
RAZORBACKSARK
28-9 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
SOONERS
55%
RAZORBACKS
45%
SOONERS
--
RAZORBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ARK +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)
OU By 1-7 points
27.2%
OU By 8-14 points
20.1%
ARK By 1-7 points
21.6%
ARK By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma
80
OKLAHOMA
Arkansas
77
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
Oklahoma
OKLAHOMA
Arkansas
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sooners
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Razorbacks (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u166.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
OU @ ARK
79 - 82
Jan 27, 2026
ARK @ OU
83 - 79
Jan 25, 2025
OU @ ARK
65 - 62
Dec 9, 2023
ARK @ OU
70 - 79
Dec 10, 2022
OU @ ARK
78 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+22.5% more
Arkansas: 5.1
vs
Oklahoma: 4.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.0%
Arkansas: 44.4%
vs
Oklahoma: 38.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OU Score
80.0
79
ARK Score
77.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
44.4 / 38.4
38.0 / 25.0
Assists
15.7 / 15.1
13.0 / 16.0
Blocks
5.1 / 4.1
7.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
50.6 / 50.6
44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
71.4 / 72.9
82.0 / 85.0
Rebounding
35.1 / 36.6
37.0 / 36.0
Steals
7.5 / 7.0
7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 8.9
7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OU
21-16-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: +0.9
ARK
Advantage
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OU
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: +0.9
ARK
Advantage
23-14-0
(62.2%)
Margin: 9.2
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
OU
19-18-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +1.8
ARK
22-15-0
O: 59.5% / U: 40.5%
Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
OU
ARK
OU
ML
68%
25-12
78%
28-8
81%
25-6
59%
20-14
ATS
70%
26-11
72%
26-10
81%
25-6
59%
20-14
TTL
57%
21-16
75%
27-9
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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