DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
18-15 | Road
66
VCU
RAMSVCU
28-8 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
DUKES
35%
RAMS
65%
DUKES
--
RAMS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
VCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around VCU +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VCU)
DUQ By 1-7 points
27.2%
DUQ By 8-14 points
20.1%
VCU By 1-7 points
21.6%
VCU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Duquesne
81
DUQUESNE
VCU
78
VCU
Simulated Score
Duquesne
DUQUESNE
VCU
VCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Dukes
Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rams (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
DUQ @ VCU
66 - 71
Jan 3, 2026
VCU @ DUQ
93 - 80
Mar 4, 2025
VCU @ DUQ
71 - 62
Mar 17, 2024
DUQ @ VCU
57 - 51
Mar 5, 2024
DUQ @ VCU
69 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.6% more
Duquesne: 8.1
vs
VCU: 6.0
Blocks (L5)
+22.6% more
Duquesne: 3.4
vs
VCU: 2.6
Assists (L5)
+11.1% more
VCU: 11.9
vs
Duquesne: 10.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.6%
VCU: 36.4%
vs
Duquesne: 26.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score
81.0
66
VCU Score
78.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 26.9
44.0 / 32.0
Assists
11.9 / 10.7
11.0 / 16.0
Blocks
2.6 / 3.4
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 39.8
47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
73.9 / 70.3
72.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 33.8
29.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.0 / 8.1
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
8.8 / 8.5
11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
VCU
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VCU
DUQ
VCU
DUQ
ML
72%
26-10
53%
17-15
67%
22-11
58%
18-13
ATS
81%
29-7
69%
22-10
67%
22-11
58%
18-13
TTL
58%
21-15
50%
16-16
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
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