TENNESSEE
VOLUNTEERSTENN
25-12 | Road
68
VANDERBILT
COMMODORESVAN
27-9 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
VOLUNTEERS
50%
COMMODORES
50%
VOLUNTEERS
--
COMMODORES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Tennessee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TENN -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TENN)
TENN By 1-7 points
27.2%
TENN By 8-14 points
23.0%
VAN By 1-7 points
18.6%
VAN By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tennessee
79
TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt
74
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
Tennessee
TENNESSEE
Vanderbilt
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Volunteers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Volunteers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 13, 2026
TENN @ VAN
68 - 75
Mar 7, 2026
VAN @ TENN
86 - 82
Feb 21, 2026
TENN @ VAN
69 - 65
Feb 15, 2025
VAN @ TENN
76 - 81
Jan 18, 2025
TENN @ VAN
75 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+50.4% more
Tennessee: 5.6
vs
Vanderbilt: 2.8
Rebounding (L5)
+15.6% more
Tennessee: 39.7
vs
Vanderbilt: 33.5
Assists (L5)
+13.5% more
Tennessee: 15.7
vs
Vanderbilt: 13.6
Steals (L5)
+10.7% more
Tennessee: 7.9
vs
Vanderbilt: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TENN Score
79.0
68
VAN Score
74.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.6 / 28.6
26.0 / 24.0
Assists
13.6 / 15.7
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.8 / 5.6
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 44.7
40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
81.4 / 69.3
85.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 39.7
34.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.0 / 7.9
6.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 8.2
6.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TENN
25-12-0
(67.6%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
VAN
Advantage
27-9-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TENN
17-19-1
(47.2%)
Margin: 9.3
ATS +/-: -1.0
VAN
Advantage
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 10.8
ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
TENN
VAN
TENN
ML
69%
25-11
46%
17-20
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
ATS
78%
28-8
54%
20-17
56%
18-14
64%
21-12
TTL
58%
21-15
76%
28-9
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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