Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bonnies @ Flyers SBU @ DAY

ST. BONAVENTURE

BONNIESSBU

17-17  |  Road

63
FINAL
Fri, Mar 13 • 10:20 AM ET
PPG Paints Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

25-12  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
BONNIES
33%
📊
FLYERS
67%
BONNIES --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DAYTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Dayton)
BonniesSBU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bonnies Cover

34.5%

Flyers Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DAY -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAY)

SBU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SBU By 8-14 points

9.3%

DAY By 1-7 points

27.4%

DAY By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
72
ST. BONAVENTURE
76
DAYTON
Simulated Score
ST. BONAVENTURE
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Flyers Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Flyers (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 13, 2026 SBU @ DAY 63 - 68
Feb 3, 2026 SBU @ DAY 70 - 72
Jan 28, 2025 DAY @ SBU 53 - 75
Feb 2, 2024 SBU @ DAY 71 - 76
Feb 4, 2023 DAY @ SBU 59 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +15.1% more
Dayton: 12.3 vs St. Bonaventure: 10.7
Field Goal % (L5) +1.7%
Dayton: 46.9% vs St. Bonaventure: 45.3%
Steals (L5) +26.1% more
St. Bonaventure: 7.9 vs Dayton: 5.8
Blocks (L5) +18.9% more
St. Bonaventure: 4.0 vs Dayton: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SBU Score 72.0 63
DAY Score 76.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 36.1 42.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.9 / 15.2 13.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.0 4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 45.3 35.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 71.6 79.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 31.5 / 37.2 37.0 / 29.0
Steals 5.8 / 7.9 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 10.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SBU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DAY Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SBU
13-20-0 (39.4%)
Margin: 1.9 ATS +/-: -2.3
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
SBU
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +5.1
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
SBU
DAY
SBU
ML
65% 24-13
59% 20-14
64% 23-13
61% 20-13
ATS
68% 25-12
50% 17-17
64% 23-13
61% 20-13
TTL
57% 21-16
38% 13-21
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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