Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Spartans @ Lobos SJSU @ UNM

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

9-24  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 7:57 PM ET
Thomas & Mack Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO

LOBOSUNM

26-11  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
SPARTANS
38%
📊
LOBOS
62%
SPARTANS --
LOBOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico)
SpartansSJSU (-3.5) 0 LobosUNM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Spartans Cover

24.2%

Lobos Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNM -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNM)

SJSU By 1-7 points

15.3%

SJSU By 8-14 points

5.8%

UNM By 1-7 points

26.2%

UNM By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SAN JOSÉ STATE
75
NEW MEXICO
Simulated Score
SAN JOSÉ STATE
NEW MEXICO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lobos Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lobos (+16.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u154.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 SJSU @ UNM 77 - 93
Jan 31, 2026 UNM @ SJSU 90 - 80
Dec 20, 2025 SJSU @ UNM 65 - 88
Mar 13, 2025 SJSU @ UNM 52 - 63
Jan 14, 2025 UNM @ SJSU 70 - 71
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.6% more
New Mexico: 9.5 vs San José State: 6.1
Assists (L5) +51.3% more
New Mexico: 14.1 vs San José State: 9.3
Steals (L5) +31.3% more
New Mexico: 8.5 vs San José State: 6.5
Rebounding (L5) +17.4% more
New Mexico: 34.4 vs San José State: 29.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SJSU Score 68.0 77
UNM Score 75.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 31.6 38.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.1 / 9.3 26.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.3 / 4.3 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.8 / 48.0 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 68.3 / 68.0 82.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 34.4 / 29.3 38.0 / 24.0
Steals 8.5 / 6.5 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 6.1 11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNM Advantage
26-11-0 (70.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SJSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
UNM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
UNM
23-12-0
O: 65.7% / U: 34.3% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNM
SJSU
UNM
SJSU
ML
57% 21-16
73% 24-9
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
ATS
57% 21-16
73% 24-9
74% 25-9
62% 20-12
TTL
41% 15-22
61% 20-13
100% 34-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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