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MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

9-23  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 5:10 PM ET
Norfolk Scope Arena
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL

EAGLESNCCU

14-18  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
25%
📊
EAGLES
75%
HAWKS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
HawksUMES (-3.5) 0 EaglesNCCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawks Cover

46.0%

Eagles Cover

54.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NCCU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCCU)

UMES By 1-7 points

26.2%

UMES By 8-14 points

16.9%

NCCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

NCCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
66
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
65
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
25% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: +1.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u132.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 UMES @ NCCU 76 - 83
Mar 2, 2026 NCCU @ UMES 77 - 73
Feb 2, 2026 UMES @ NCCU 63 - 65
Feb 26, 2025 NCCU @ UMES 59 - 68
Jan 11, 2025 UMES @ NCCU 69 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.1% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 14.5 vs North Carolina Central: 9.9
Turnovers (L5) +31.8% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 17.3 vs North Carolina Central: 11.8
Blocks (L5) +19.2% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 4.6 vs North Carolina Central: 3.7
Rebounding (L5) +12.2% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 34.4 vs North Carolina Central: 30.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UMES Score 66.0 76
NCCU Score 65.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 27.1 44.0 / 27.0
Assists 9.9 / 14.5 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.6 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 44.8 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.8 / 69.5 91.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 30.2 / 34.4 29.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.6 / 6.8 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 17.3 13.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMES
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
NCCU Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMES
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
NCCU Advantage
15-13-0 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
UMES
NCCU
UMES
ML
65% 20-11
66% 21-11
81% 22-5
81% 21-5
ATS
71% 22-9
69% 22-10
81% 22-5
81% 21-5
TTL
55% 17-14
66% 21-11
100% 27-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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