Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cowboys @ Horned Frogs OKST @ TCU

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

20-15  |  Road

88
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 5:43 PM ET
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TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

23-12  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
23%
📊
HORNED FROGS
77%
COWBOYS --
HORNED FROGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
168.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
OKLAHOMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Oklahoma State)
CowboysOKST (-3.5) 0 Horned FrogsTCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

84.1%

Horned Frogs Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKST)

OKST By 1-7 points

23.0%

OKST By 8-14 points

27.2%

TCU By 1-7 points

10.7%

TCU By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
89
OKLAHOMA STATE
79
TCU
Simulated Score
OKLAHOMA STATE
TCU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
23% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 168.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 OKST @ TCU 88 - 95
Feb 14, 2026 TCU @ OKST 95 - 92
Jan 20, 2026 OKST @ TCU 65 - 68
Feb 12, 2025 OKST @ TCU 72 - 73
Jan 23, 2024 TCU @ OKST 74 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +27.4% more
Oklahoma State: 2.7 vs TCU: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.4%
Oklahoma State: 81.6% vs TCU: 69.2%
Rebounding (L5) +12.4% more
Oklahoma State: 40.3 vs TCU: 35.3
Turnovers (L5) +10.7% more
Oklahoma State: 9.9 vs TCU: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKST Score 89.0 88
TCU Score 79.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 32.7 35.0 / 21.0
Assists 16.7 / 13.6 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.0 / 2.7 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 43.9 51.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 81.6 70.0 / 94.0
Rebounding 35.3 / 40.3 39.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.4 / 6.0 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.8 / 9.9 7.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
TCU Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
TCU Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TCU
OKST
TCU
OKST
ML
74% 26-9
60% 21-14
63% 19-11
66% 21-11
ATS
74% 26-9
57% 20-15
63% 19-11
66% 21-11
TTL
66% 23-12
57% 20-15
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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