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SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

20-14  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 10:45 AM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

CARDINALSLOU

24-11  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
45%
📊
CARDINALS
55%
MUSTANGS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 CardinalsLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

27.4%

Cardinals Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LOU +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

SMU By 1-7 points

26.8%

SMU By 8-14 points

24.3%

LOU By 1-7 points

16.9%

LOU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
SMU
68
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
SMU
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mustangs Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 SMU @ LOU 58 - 62
Feb 17, 2026 LOU @ SMU 85 - 95
Jan 31, 2026 SMU @ LOU 74 - 88
Jan 21, 2025 LOU @ SMU 98 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.4% more
SMU: 7.0 vs Louisville: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +17.6% more
SMU: 38.5 vs Louisville: 31.7
Assists (L5) +12.5% more
Louisville: 17.2 vs SMU: 15.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Louisville: 41.7% vs SMU: 36.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 74.0 58
LOU Score 68.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.7 / 36.1 23.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.2 / 15.3 8.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.5 / 2.5 2.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 45.7 40.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 73.2 / 74.2 70.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 38.5 32.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.6 / 7.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 10.4 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
LOU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
LOU Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
SMU
LOU
SMU
ML
63% 22-13
59% 20-14
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
ATS
71% 25-10
62% 21-13
71% 24-10
73% 24-9
TTL
63% 22-13
56% 19-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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