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NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

16-16  |  Road

68
FINAL
Tue, Mar 10 • 5:17 PM ET
Propst Arena
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

GAMECOCKSJXST

15-17  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
63%
📊
GAMECOCKS
38%
AGGIES --
GAMECOCKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (New Mexico State)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 GamecocksJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

75.8%

Gamecocks Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NMSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

NMSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

JXST By 1-7 points

15.3%

JXST By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
78
NEW MEXICO STATE
71
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
NEW MEXICO STATE
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Aggies Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Aggies (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o141.5 Loss
Proj Total: 149.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 10, 2026 NMSU @ JXST 68 - 63
Mar 5, 2026 JXST @ NMSU 75 - 77
Feb 14, 2026 NMSU @ JXST 79 - 70
Feb 20, 2025 NMSU @ JXST 61 - 52
Jan 25, 2025 JXST @ NMSU 65 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +11.8% more
New Mexico State: 12.4 vs Jacksonville State: 10.9
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
New Mexico State: 76.0% vs Jacksonville State: 68.7%
Turnovers (L5) +17.8% more
Jacksonville State: 11.0 vs New Mexico State: 9.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.4%
Jacksonville State: 38.6% vs New Mexico State: 26.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 78.0 68
JXST Score 71.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.6 / 26.2 30.0 / 44.0
Assists 10.9 / 12.4 10.0 / 7.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.5 4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.4 / 41.4 46.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 68.7 / 76.0 65.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 40.7 34.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.8 / 5.3 8.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 11.0 / 9.3 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
JXST
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
JXST
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
JXST
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
NMSU
JXST
NMSU
ML
50% 16-16
61% 19-12
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
ATS
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
55% 17-14
67% 20-10
TTL
62% 20-12
45% 14-17
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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