NICHOLLS
COLONELSNICH
14-19 | Road
68
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
VAQUEROSRGV
19-14 | Home
86
AI Model Win Probability
COLONELS
32%
VAQUEROS
68%
COLONELS
--
VAQUEROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around RGV +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RGV)
NICH By 1-7 points
27.4%
NICH By 8-14 points
21.6%
RGV By 1-7 points
20.1%
RGV By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Nicholls
77
NICHOLLS
UT Rio Grande Valley
73
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Simulated Score
Nicholls
NICHOLLS
UT Rio Grande Valley
UT RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colonels
Loss
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vaqueros (+5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
NICH @ RGV
68 - 86
Feb 9, 2026
RGV @ NICH
92 - 72
Dec 31, 2025
NICH @ RGV
71 - 69
Feb 22, 2025
RGV @ NICH
84 - 93
Jan 27, 2025
NICH @ RGV
82 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+36.0% more
Nicholls: 7.4
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 4.7
Blocks (L5)
+23.7% more
Nicholls: 3.3
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 2.5
Turnovers (L5)
+17.9% more
Nicholls: 12.9
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 10.6
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
Nicholls: 36.3
vs
UT Rio Grande Valley: 33.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NICH Score
77.0
68
RGV Score
73.0
86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.9 / 28.7
50.0 / 25.0
Assists
15.3 / 12.8
20.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.5 / 3.3
3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
48.2 / 41.9
58.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 62.9
100.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
33.3 / 36.3
27.0 / 27.0
Steals
4.7 / 7.4
6.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.6 / 12.9
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
RGV
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -2.5
ATS +/-: -0.3
RGV
Advantage
18-13-0
(58.1%)
Margin: 6.4
ATS +/-: +4.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9%
Total +/-: +1.4
RGV
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RGV
NICH
RGV
NICH
ML
53%
16-14
53%
17-15
54%
15-13
68%
19-9
ATS
53%
16-14
47%
15-17
54%
15-13
68%
19-9
TTL
60%
18-12
56%
18-14
100%
28-0
100%
28-0
