IDAHO
VANDALSIDHO
21-15 | Road
78
MONTANA STATE
BOBCATSMTST
18-14 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
VANDALS
45%
BOBCATS
55%
VANDALS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
IDAHO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Idaho)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IDHO -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDHO)
IDHO By 1-7 points
27.2%
IDHO By 8-14 points
23.0%
MTST By 1-7 points
18.6%
MTST By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Idaho
71
IDAHO
Montana State
66
MONTANA STATE
Simulated Score
Idaho
IDAHO
Montana State
MONTANA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Vandals
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Vandals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u143.5
Loss
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 8, 2026
IDHO @ MTST
78 - 74
Feb 5, 2026
IDHO @ MTST
66 - 73
Jan 10, 2026
MTST @ IDHO
89 - 92
Mar 3, 2025
IDHO @ MTST
60 - 75
Jan 2, 2025
MTST @ IDHO
64 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+19.7% more
Idaho: 41.9
vs
Montana State: 33.6
Blocks (L5)
+18.5% more
Idaho: 4.2
vs
Montana State: 3.4
Turnovers (L5)
+9.6% more
Idaho: 10.4
vs
Montana State: 9.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.1%
Idaho: 69.5%
vs
Montana State: 63.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IDHO Score
71.0
78
MTST Score
66.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.9 / 34.1
46.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.5 / 12.5
12.0 / 9.0
Blocks
3.4 / 4.2
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.6 / 41.3
45.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
63.4 / 69.5
56.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
33.6 / 41.9
31.0 / 34.0
Steals
5.9 / 5.5
4.0 / 1.0
Turnovers
9.4 / 10.4
6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDHO
Advantage
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
MTST
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDHO
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: 5.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
MTST
Advantage
16-12-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.5
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IDHO
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6%
Total +/-: -1.9
MTST
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTST
IDHO
MTST
IDHO
ML
52%
16-15
56%
20-16
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
ATS
52%
16-15
58%
21-15
67%
20-10
64%
21-12
TTL
65%
20-11
69%
25-11
100%
30-0
100%
33-0
