Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Thundering Herd GASO @ MRSH

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

21-16  |  Road

82
FINAL
Sun, Mar 8 • 5:00 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

THUNDERING HERDMRSH

19-13  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
58%
📊
THUNDERING HERD
42%
EAGLES --
THUNDERING HERD --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Georgia Southern)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 Thundering HerdMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

84.1%

Thundering Herd Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GASO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-7 points

23.0%

GASO By 8-14 points

27.2%

MRSH By 1-7 points

10.7%

MRSH By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
87
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
77
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u166.5 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 GASO @ MRSH 82 - 78
Feb 27, 2026 GASO @ MRSH 99 - 82
Feb 14, 2026 MRSH @ GASO 87 - 101
Jan 25, 2025 MRSH @ GASO 71 - 67
Jan 11, 2025 GASO @ MRSH 69 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.8% more
Georgia Southern: 8.0 vs Marshall: 5.6
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Georgia Southern: 42.6% vs Marshall: 36.1%
Free Throw % (L5) +3.2%
Georgia Southern: 78.2% vs Marshall: 75.1%
Assists (L5) +26.8% more
Marshall: 16.2 vs Georgia Southern: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 87.0 82
MRSH Score 77.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 42.6 38.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.2 / 12.8 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.9 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 52.0 / 51.0 45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 75.1 / 78.2 74.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 31.4 / 31.7 35.0 / 43.0
Steals 5.6 / 8.0 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 9.0 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
MRSH Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO Advantage
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
MRSH
10-20-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
MRSH
19-11-1
O: 63.3% / U: 36.7% Total +/-: +4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
GASO
MRSH
GASO
ML
70% 21-9
56% 20-16
62% 18-11
58% 19-14
ATS
70% 21-9
64% 23-13
62% 18-11
58% 19-14
TTL
50% 15-15
61% 22-14
100% 29-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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