Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Dragons @ Hawks DREX @ MONM

DREXEL

DRAGONSDREX

17-16  |  Road

57
FINAL
Sun, Mar 8 • 11:00 AM ET
CareFirst Arena
View Odds Details →

MONMOUTH

HAWKSMONM

19-15  |  Home

65
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
41%
📊
HAWKS
59%
DRAGONS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
MONMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Monmouth)
DragonsDREX (-3.5) 0 HawksMONM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dragons Cover

27.4%

Hawks Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MONM -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONM)

DREX By 1-7 points

16.9%

DREX By 8-14 points

6.8%

MONM By 1-7 points

26.8%

MONM By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
65
DREXEL
71
MONMOUTH
Simulated Score
DREXEL
MONMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 DREX @ MONM 57 - 65
Feb 12, 2026 MONM @ DREX 93 - 73
Jan 15, 2026 DREX @ MONM 73 - 51
Mar 1, 2025 MONM @ DREX 61 - 71
Jan 30, 2025 DREX @ MONM 97 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +54.5% more
Monmouth: 7.2 vs Drexel: 4.7
Assists (L5) +25.7% more
Monmouth: 15.2 vs Drexel: 12.1
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Monmouth: 48.6% vs Drexel: 44.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
Monmouth: 78.1% vs Drexel: 75.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DREX Score 65.0 57
MONM Score 71.0 65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.0 / 37.0 29.0 / 41.0
Assists 15.2 / 12.1 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.2 / 3.9 10.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.6 / 44.6 46.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 78.1 / 75.4 78.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 34.3 35.0 / 36.0
Steals 7.2 / 4.7 10.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 12.2 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
29%MONEY71%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DREX
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
MONM Advantage
19-15-0 (55.9%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DREX Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: +0.3
MONM
17-15-1 (53.1%)
Margin: 1.8 ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DREX
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -2.8
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MONM
DREX
MONM
DREX
ML
62% 21-13
58% 19-14
64% 21-12
81% 26-6
ATS
62% 21-13
70% 23-10
64% 21-12
81% 26-6
TTL
59% 20-14
48% 16-17
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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