Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Saints MSM @ SIE

MOUNT ST. MARY'S

MOUNTAINEERSMSM

15-17  |  Road

58
FINAL
Sat, Mar 7 • 3:48 PM ET
Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
View Odds Details →

SIENA

SAINTSSIE

23-12  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
55%
📊
SAINTS
45%
MOUNTAINEERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
SIENA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Siena)
MountaineersMSM (-3.5) 0 SaintsSIE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

27.4%

Saints Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SIE -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SIE)

MSM By 1-7 points

16.9%

MSM By 8-14 points

6.8%

SIE By 1-7 points

26.8%

SIE By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
71
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
77
SIENA
Simulated Score
MOUNT ST. MARY'S
SIENA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Saints (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o135.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 7, 2026 MSM @ SIE 58 - 63
Jan 11, 2026 SIE @ MSM 67 - 50
Mar 2, 2025 SIE @ MSM 79 - 85
Jan 23, 2025 MSM @ SIE 68 - 82
Feb 4, 2024 MSM @ SIE 68 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +22.1%
Siena: 82.9% vs Mount St. Mary's: 60.8%
Blocks (L5) +11.8% more
Siena: 3.1 vs Mount St. Mary's: 2.8
Steals (L5) +49.8% more
Mount St. Mary's: 8.2 vs Siena: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +32.9% more
Mount St. Mary's: 14.4 vs Siena: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSM Score 71.0 58
SIE Score 77.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.3 / 32.8 28.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.1 / 14.8 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.8 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 47.3 36.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 82.9 / 60.8 94.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 32.2 / 39.0 36.0 / 42.0
Steals 4.1 / 8.2 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 14.4 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSM
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SIE Advantage
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSM
17-13-1 (56.7%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
SIE Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MSM
10-21-0
O: 32.3% / U: 67.7% Total +/-: -3.9
SIE
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SIE
MSM
SIE
MSM
ML
66% 23-12
53% 17-15
48% 16-17
61% 19-12
ATS
66% 23-12
62% 20-12
48% 16-17
61% 19-12
TTL
54% 19-16
81% 26-6
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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