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NORTHERN IOWA

PANTHERSUNI

23-13  |  Road

74
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 5:25 PM ET
Enterprise Center
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ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

23-13  |  Home

52
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
50%
📊
REDBIRDS
50%
PANTHERS --
REDBIRDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
NORTHERN IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Northern Iowa)
PanthersUNI (-3.5) 0 RedbirdsILST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

81.6%

Redbirds Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNI -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNI)

UNI By 1-7 points

24.3%

UNI By 8-14 points

26.8%

ILST By 1-7 points

12.2%

ILST By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
71
NORTHERN IOWA
62
ILLINOIS STATE
Simulated Score
NORTHERN IOWA
ILLINOIS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o130.5 Loss
Proj Total: 133.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 UNI @ ILST 74 - 52
Feb 25, 2026 ILST @ UNI 71 - 69
Jan 21, 2026 UNI @ ILST 54 - 59
Feb 8, 2025 ILST @ UNI 65 - 68
Jan 11, 2025 UNI @ ILST 85 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +40.3% more
Northern Iowa: 3.2 vs Illinois State: 1.9
Steals (L5) +34.1% more
Northern Iowa: 6.6 vs Illinois State: 4.4
Assists (L5) +9.6% more
Northern Iowa: 14.3 vs Illinois State: 13.0
Turnovers (L5) +76.1% more
Illinois State: 12.0 vs Northern Iowa: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNI Score 71.0 74
ILST Score 62.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.0 / 34.6 15.0 / 42.0
Assists 13.0 / 14.3 8.0 / 21.0
Blocks 1.9 / 3.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.9 / 45.4 33.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 77.9 / 71.7 68.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.8 / 31.8 26.0 / 35.0
Steals 4.4 / 6.6 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.0 / 6.8 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNI
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
ILST
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNI
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 7.7 ATS +/-: +2.4
ILST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UNI
14-21-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -4.7
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILST
UNI
ILST
UNI
ML
42% 15-21
51% 18-17
71% 24-10
56% 19-15
ATS
58% 21-15
49% 17-18
71% 24-10
56% 19-15
TTL
58% 21-15
69% 24-11
100% 34-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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