Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Jaguars GASO @ USA

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

21-16  |  Road

94
FINAL
Fri, Mar 6 • 3:50 PM ET
Pensacola Bay Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

21-12  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
40%
📊
JAGUARS
60%
EAGLES --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Georgia Southern)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

78.8%

Jaguars Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GASO -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-7 points

25.3%

GASO By 8-14 points

26.2%

USA By 1-7 points

13.7%

USA By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
74
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
66
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Eagles Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Eagles (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 6, 2026 GASO @ USA 94 - 85
Jan 10, 2026 GASO @ USA 71 - 87
Jan 4, 2025 USA @ GASO 76 - 47
Mar 7, 2024 GASO @ USA 76 - 71
Feb 7, 2024 GASO @ USA 65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.2% more
Georgia Southern: 10.0 vs South Alabama: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5) +16.6%
Georgia Southern: 82.6% vs South Alabama: 65.9%
Steals (L5) +13.0% more
Georgia Southern: 8.3 vs South Alabama: 7.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
Georgia Southern: 39.0% vs South Alabama: 31.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 74.0 94
USA Score 66.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 39.0 53.0 / 52.0
Assists 11.5 / 11.0 15.0 / 22.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.2 0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 46.2 48.0 / 56.0
Free Throw % 65.9 / 82.6 61.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 30.6 36.0 / 29.0
Steals 7.2 / 8.3 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.1 / 10.0 9.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
GASO
USA
GASO
ML
47% 15-17
56% 20-16
57% 17-13
58% 19-14
ATS
53% 17-15
64% 23-13
57% 17-13
58% 19-14
TTL
66% 21-11
61% 22-14
100% 30-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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