Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Bulldogs SOU @ AAMU

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

17-17  |  Road

88
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 4:20 PM ET
Event Center
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA A&M

BULLDOGSAAMU

18-15  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
55%
📊
BULLDOGS
45%
JAGUARS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
ALABAMA A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Alabama A&M)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsAAMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

34.5%

Bulldogs Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AAMU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AAMU)

SOU By 1-7 points

20.1%

SOU By 8-14 points

9.3%

AAMU By 1-7 points

27.4%

AAMU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
75
SOUTHERN
79
ALABAMA A&M
Simulated Score
SOUTHERN
ALABAMA A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 SOU @ AAMU 88 - 85
Feb 7, 2026 AAMU @ SOU 68 - 81
Mar 8, 2025 AAMU @ SOU 57 - 71
Feb 8, 2025 SOU @ AAMU 81 - 68
Mar 9, 2024 SOU @ AAMU 56 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +9.0%
Alabama A&M: 76.1% vs Southern: 67.1%
Field Goal % (L5) +6.9%
Alabama A&M: 49.2% vs Southern: 42.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.0%
Alabama A&M: 43.2% vs Southern: 38.2%
Blocks (L5) +41.5% more
Southern: 4.4 vs Alabama A&M: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 75.0 88
AAMU Score 79.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 43.2 / 38.2 36.0 / 60.0
Assists 13.3 / 15.5 14.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.4 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 49.2 / 42.3 46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 76.1 / 67.1 76.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 30.9 / 34.5 32.0 / 38.0
Steals 5.0 / 8.0 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 9.7 / 10.3 8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
15%MONEY85%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
AAMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
AAMU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
AAMU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AAMU
SOU
AAMU
SOU
ML
55% 16-13
67% 22-11
67% 16-8
70% 21-9
ATS
55% 16-13
64% 21-12
67% 16-8
70% 21-9
TTL
66% 19-10
42% 14-19
100% 24-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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