Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Hawks DSU @ UMES

DELAWARE STATE

HORNETSDSU

8-23  |  Road

57
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 3:00 PM ET
Hytche Center
View Odds Details →

MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE

HAWKSUMES

9-23  |  Home

56
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
50%
📊
HAWKS
50%
HORNETS --
HAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Maryland Eastern Shore)
HornetsDSU (-3.5) 0 HawksUMES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

8.1%

Hawks Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMES -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMES)

DSU By 1-7 points

5.8%

DSU By 8-14 points

1.4%

UMES By 1-7 points

16.9%

UMES By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
56
DELAWARE STATE
70
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Simulated Score
DELAWARE STATE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawks Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawks (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o124.5 Loss
Proj Total: 126.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 DSU @ UMES 57 - 56
Jan 31, 2026 UMES @ DSU 57 - 65
Mar 6, 2025 UMES @ DSU 68 - 75
Jan 25, 2025 DSU @ UMES 73 - 66
Mar 7, 2024 DSU @ UMES 59 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +153.5% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 2.9 vs Delaware State: 1.1
Assists (L5) +90.8% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 15.8 vs Delaware State: 8.3
Turnovers (L5) +42.3% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 18.5 vs Delaware State: 13.0
Rebounding (L5) +11.8% more
Maryland Eastern Shore: 35.1 vs Delaware State: 31.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DSU Score 56.0 57
UMES Score 70.0 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.1 / 25.4 15.0 / 35.0
Assists 15.8 / 8.3 12.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 1.1 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 39.1 43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 68.8 67.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 31.4 33.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.7 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 18.5 / 13.0 15.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DSU
8-23-0 (25.8%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
UMES Advantage
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DSU
9-17-0 (34.6%)
Margin: -9.3 ATS +/-: -3.1
UMES Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.4 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
DSU
7-19-0
O: 26.9% / U: 73.1% Total +/-: -5.3
UMES
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMES
DSU
UMES
DSU
ML
66% 21-11
60% 18-12
81% 21-5
75% 18-6
ATS
69% 22-10
60% 18-12
81% 21-5
72% 18-7
TTL
66% 21-11
57% 17-13
100% 26-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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