MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
DELTA DEVILSMVSU
3-30 | Road
64
ALCORN STATE
BRAVESALCN
9-23 | Home
67
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
36%
BRAVES
64%
DELTA DEVILS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ALCORN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Alcorn State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALCN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALCN)
MVSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
MVSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
ALCN By 1-7 points
26.2%
ALCN By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Mississippi Valley State
64
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Alcorn State
65
ALCORN STATE
Simulated Score
Mississippi Valley State
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
Alcorn State
ALCORN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u139.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 3, 2026
MVSU @ ALCN
64 - 67
Feb 9, 2026
ALCN @ MVSU
74 - 66
Mar 6, 2025
ALCN @ MVSU
72 - 64
Feb 10, 2025
MVSU @ ALCN
39 - 86
Mar 7, 2024
MVSU @ ALCN
67 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+16.6% more
Alcorn State: 2.3
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 1.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+9.1%
Alcorn State: 76.5%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 67.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Alcorn State: 31.6%
vs
Mississippi Valley State: 28.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+20.0% more
Mississippi Valley State: 15.2
vs
Alcorn State: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score
64.0
64
ALCN Score
65.0
67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.6 / 28.4
20.0 / 18.0
Assists
9.7 / 12.0
8.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.3 / 1.9
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.4 / 42.9
45.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
76.5 / 67.4
71.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
31.2 / 33.5
27.0 / 29.0
Steals
7.6 / 7.7
10.0 / 2.0
Turnovers
12.1 / 15.2
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0
(9.1%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
ALCN
Advantage
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU
16-16-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -18.8
ATS +/-: +0.4
ALCN
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: -13.3
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: +1.0
ALCN
15-16-1
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALCN
MVSU
ALCN
MVSU
ML
66%
21-11
91%
30-3
75%
18-6
75%
18-6
ATS
68%
21-10-1
82%
27-6
75%
18-6
75%
18-6
TTL
47%
15-17
58%
19-14
100%
24-0
100%
24-0
