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ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

10-22  |  Road

89
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 12:45 PM ET
Event Center
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ALABAMA A&M

BULLDOGSAAMU

18-15  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
40%
📊
BULLDOGS
60%
HORNETS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
150.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 5%
Under 0 95%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ALABAMA A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Alabama A&M)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 BulldogsAAMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

15.9%

Bulldogs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AAMU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AAMU)

ALST By 1-7 points

10.7%

ALST By 8-14 points

3.3%

AAMU By 1-7 points

23.0%

AAMU By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
70
ALABAMA STATE
80
ALABAMA A&M
Simulated Score
ALABAMA STATE
ALABAMA A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u164.5 Loss
Proj Total: 150.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ALST @ AAMU 89 - 88
Jan 19, 2026 AAMU @ ALST 73 - 69
Mar 1, 2025 AAMU @ ALST 52 - 94
Jan 18, 2025 ALST @ AAMU 69 - 65
Mar 2, 2024 ALST @ AAMU 53 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +14.6%
Alabama A&M: 79.2% vs Alabama State: 64.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Alabama A&M: 46.3% vs Alabama State: 40.4%
Blocks (L5) +29.2% more
Alabama State: 2.6 vs Alabama A&M: 1.8
Steals (L5) +19.7% more
Alabama State: 7.1 vs Alabama A&M: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 70.0 89
AAMU Score 80.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 32.7 48.0 / 43.0
Assists 10.4 / 12.5 18.0 / 13.0
Blocks 1.8 / 2.6 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 40.4 57.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 79.2 / 64.6 64.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 31.6 / 37.5 28.0 / 27.0
Steals 5.7 / 7.1 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 11.1 9.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
AAMU Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
AAMU Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
AAMU
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AAMU
ALST
AAMU
ALST
ML
55% 16-13
65% 20-11
67% 16-8
76% 19-6
ATS
55% 16-13
65% 20-11
67% 16-8
76% 19-6
TTL
66% 19-10
52% 16-15
100% 24-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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