Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crimson Tide @ Volunteers ALA @ TENN

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

25-10  |  Road

71
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 1:10 PM ET
Food City Center
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

25-12  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
45%
📊
VOLUNTEERS
55%
CRIMSON TIDE --
VOLUNTEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Alabama)
Crimson TideALA (-3.5) 0 VolunteersTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crimson Tide Cover

84.1%

Volunteers Cover

15.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALA -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ALA By 1-7 points

23.0%

ALA By 8-14 points

27.2%

TENN By 1-7 points

10.7%

TENN By 8-14 points

3.3%

AI Model Projected Score
84
ALABAMA
74
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
ALABAMA
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Crimson Tide (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
B
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 158.0
C
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 ALA @ TENN 71 - 69
Jan 24, 2026 TENN @ ALA 79 - 73
Mar 1, 2025 ALA @ TENN 76 - 79
Mar 2, 2024 TENN @ ALA 81 - 74
Jan 20, 2024 ALA @ TENN 71 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +21.5% more
Alabama: 18.4 vs Tennessee: 14.5
Free Throw % (L5) +11.2%
Alabama: 78.5% vs Tennessee: 67.3%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.2%
Alabama: 38.9% vs Tennessee: 31.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.8%
Alabama: 47.4% vs Tennessee: 44.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 84.0 71
TENN Score 74.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 38.9 22.0 / 37.0
Assists 14.5 / 18.4 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 3.6 / 2.6 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 47.4 38.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 78.5 63.0 / 85.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 43.0 47.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.7 9.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 10.9 6.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
TENN
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
TENN Advantage
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
ALA
TENN
ALA
ML
46% 17-20
63% 22-13
64% 21-12
58% 19-14
ATS
54% 20-17
60% 21-14
64% 21-12
58% 19-14
TTL
76% 28-9
63% 22-13
100% 33-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 20 hours, 9 minutes ago
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
saturdaydownsouth 2 days, 7 hours ago
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
Kansas Jayhawks Set Program Record with 706 Yards, Blank Middle …
si 5 days, 1 hour ago
Calipari Drops Stunner: Nine Arkansas Players Outearn Assistant …
yahoo 1 week ago