Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Colonels SELA @ NICH

SE LOUISIANA

LIONSSELA

9-22  |  Road

60
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 11:45 AM ET
David R. Stopher Gymnasium
View Odds Details →

NICHOLLS

COLONELSNICH

14-19  |  Home

68
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
50%
📊
COLONELS
50%
LIONS --
COLONELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
135.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SE LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (SE Louisiana)
LionsSELA (-3.5) 0 ColonelsNICH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

69.1%

Colonels Cover

30.9%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SELA -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SELA)

SELA By 1-7 points

27.2%

SELA By 8-14 points

23.0%

NICH By 1-7 points

18.6%

NICH By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SE LOUISIANA
65
NICHOLLS
Simulated Score
SE LOUISIANA
NICHOLLS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-4.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u140.0 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 SELA @ NICH 60 - 68
Jan 24, 2026 NICH @ SELA 61 - 67
Feb 15, 2025 NICH @ SELA 81 - 84
Dec 5, 2024 SELA @ NICH 64 - 67
Mar 7, 2024 NICH @ SELA 80 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.1% more
Nicholls: 8.0 vs SE Louisiana: 5.2
Blocks (L5) +35.4% more
Nicholls: 3.3 vs SE Louisiana: 2.5
Assists (L5) +33.2% more
Nicholls: 13.0 vs SE Louisiana: 9.7
Rebounding (L5) +8.6% more
Nicholls: 32.1 vs SE Louisiana: 29.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SELA Score 70.0 60
NICH Score 65.0 68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 26.2 27.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.0 / 9.7 15.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.5 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 44.9 / 44.0 42.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 67.1 / 64.3 55.0 / 89.0
Rebounding 32.1 / 29.6 37.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.0 / 5.2 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 11.0 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SELA
9-22-0 (29.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
NICH Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SELA
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -0.9
NICH Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SELA
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7% Total +/-: -1.4
NICH
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NICH
SELA
NICH
SELA
ML
53% 17-15
70% 21-9
68% 19-9
66% 19-10
ATS
47% 15-17
60% 18-12
68% 19-9
67% 20-10
TTL
56% 18-14
70% 21-9
100% 28-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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