BALL STATE
CARDINALSBALL
12-19 | Road
79
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
HUSKIESNIU
9-21 | Home
43
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
59%
HUSKIES
41%
CARDINALS
--
HUSKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
10%
Under 0
90%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Northern Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NIU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)
BALL By 1-7 points
16.9%
BALL By 8-14 points
6.8%
NIU By 1-7 points
26.8%
NIU By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Ball State
64
BALL STATE
Northern Illinois
70
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
Ball State
BALL STATE
Northern Illinois
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Huskies
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Huskies (+11.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
BALL @ NIU
79 - 43
Jan 24, 2026
NIU @ BALL
53 - 58
Feb 15, 2025
NIU @ BALL
83 - 89
Jan 25, 2025
BALL @ NIU
66 - 76
Feb 20, 2024
BALL @ NIU
70 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+20.3% more
Northern Illinois: 13.9
vs
Ball State: 11.6
Turnovers (L5)
+20.1% more
Northern Illinois: 13.4
vs
Ball State: 11.1
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
Northern Illinois: 44.3%
vs
Ball State: 38.0%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.4%
Northern Illinois: 32.7%
vs
Ball State: 30.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BALL Score
64.0
79
NIU Score
70.0
43
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 30.3
24.0 / 44.0
Assists
13.9 / 11.6
6.0 / 20.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.2
1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
44.3 / 38.0
26.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
60.8 / 72.0
74.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
32.6 / 35.9
27.0 / 39.0
Steals
4.5 / 6.7
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 11.1
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
NIU
9-21-0
(30.0%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
NIU
13-15-0
(46.4%)
Margin: -8.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -6.2
NIU
8-20-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
BALL
NIU
BALL
ML
67%
20-10
43%
13-17
66%
19-10
62%
18-11
ATS
63%
19-11
67%
20-10
66%
19-10
62%
18-11
TTL
67%
20-10
50%
15-15
100%
29-0
100%
29-0
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