Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jayhawks @ Wildcats KU @ ARIZ

KANSAS

JAYHAWKSKU

24-11  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 11:05 AM ET
McKale Memorial Center
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

WILDCATSARIZ

36-3  |  Home

84
AI Model Win Probability
JAYHAWKS
55%
📊
WILDCATS
45%
JAYHAWKS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
JayhawksKU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jayhawks Cover

46.0%

Wildcats Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARIZ -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

KU By 1-7 points

24.3%

KU By 8-14 points

13.7%

ARIZ By 1-7 points

26.2%

ARIZ By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
78
KANSAS
79
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
KANSAS
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 KU @ ARIZ 61 - 84
Feb 9, 2026 ARIZ @ KU 78 - 82
Mar 13, 2025 KU @ ARIZ 77 - 88
Mar 8, 2025 ARIZ @ KU 76 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +36.5% more
Arizona: 6.0 vs Kansas: 4.4
Assists (L5) +16.4% more
Arizona: 14.6 vs Kansas: 12.5
Rebounding (L5) +9.7% more
Arizona: 39.6 vs Kansas: 36.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Arizona: 46.5% vs Kansas: 44.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KU Score 78.0 61
ARIZ Score 79.0 84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.0 / 34.7 25.0 / 35.0
Assists 14.6 / 12.5 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.7 / 5.3 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 44.2 45.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 83.5 88.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 36.1 48.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.0 / 4.4 6.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 11.4 11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
49%MONEY51%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KU
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
ARIZ Advantage
36-3-0 (92.3%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KU
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
ARIZ Advantage
23-15-1 (60.5%)
Margin: 16.8 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -4.1
ARIZ
20-19-0
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
KU
ARIZ
KU
ML
67% 26-13
57% 20-15
68% 23-11
68% 21-10
ATS
74% 29-10
49% 17-18
68% 23-11
68% 21-10
TTL
56% 22-17
60% 21-14
100% 34-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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