Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Commodores @ Wildcats VAN @ UK

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

27-9  |  Road

77
FINAL
Sat, Feb 28 • 9:05 AM ET
Rupp Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

22-14  |  Home

91
AI Model Win Probability
COMMODORES
55%
📊
WILDCATS
45%
COMMODORES --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kentucky)
CommodoresVAN (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commodores Cover

42.1%

Wildcats Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UK -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)

VAN By 1-7 points

23.0%

VAN By 8-14 points

12.2%

UK By 1-7 points

26.8%

UK By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
69
VANDERBILT
71
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
VANDERBILT
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Loss
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 VAN @ UK 77 - 91
Jan 27, 2026 UK @ VAN 55 - 80
Feb 19, 2025 VAN @ UK 61 - 82
Jan 25, 2025 UK @ VAN 69 - 74
Mar 6, 2024 VAN @ UK 77 - 93
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +59.3% more
Kentucky: 13.2 vs Vanderbilt: 8.3
Rebounding (L5) +20.9% more
Kentucky: 41.5 vs Vanderbilt: 34.3
Blocks (L5) +30.5% more
Vanderbilt: 5.1 vs Kentucky: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5) +8.4%
Vanderbilt: 79.9% vs Kentucky: 71.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAN Score 69.0 77
UK Score 71.0 91
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 33.8 50.0 / 25.0
Assists 14.2 / 14.0 16.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.6 / 5.1 0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 45.4 59.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 71.5 / 79.9 80.0 / 91.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 34.3 29.0 / 22.0
Steals 6.6 / 6.2 8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 8.3 11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
UK
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAN
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
VAN
UK
VAN
ML
71% 25-10
69% 25-11
72% 23-9
56% 18-14
ATS
83% 29-6
78% 28-8
72% 23-9
56% 18-14
TTL
63% 22-13
58% 21-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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