ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
10-22 | Road
63
FLORIDA A&M
RATTLERSFAMU
15-16 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
55%
RATTLERS
45%
HORNETS
--
RATTLERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
10%
Under 0
90%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Alabama State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALST -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)
ALST By 1-7 points
18.6%
ALST By 8-14 points
26.8%
FAMU By 1-7 points
6.8%
FAMU By 8-14 points
1.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama State
71
ALABAMA STATE
Florida A&M
58
FLORIDA A&M
Simulated Score
Alabama State
ALABAMA STATE
Florida A&M
FLORIDA A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (+7.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u171.5
Win
Proj Total: 129.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 21, 2026
ALST @ FAMU
63 - 76
Feb 2, 2026
FAMU @ ALST
66 - 79
Feb 22, 2025
FAMU @ ALST
59 - 60
Feb 3, 2025
ALST @ FAMU
67 - 66
Feb 24, 2024
ALST @ FAMU
65 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+20.1% more
Alabama State: 41.3
vs
Florida A&M: 33.0
Blocks (L5)
+16.4% more
Alabama State: 3.4
vs
Florida A&M: 2.8
Turnovers (L5)
+17.7% more
Florida A&M: 13.7
vs
Alabama State: 11.6
Steals (L5)
+13.8% more
Florida A&M: 7.5
vs
Alabama State: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALST Score
71.0
63
FAMU Score
58.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.1 / 30.6
25.0 / 37.0
Assists
13.2 / 11.8
14.0 / 14.0
Blocks
2.8 / 3.4
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.0 / 40.6
49.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 71.9
61.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 41.3
46.0 / 30.0
Steals
7.5 / 6.6
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 11.6
14.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
FAMU
Advantage
15-16-0
(48.4%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
FAMU
Advantage
16-13-0
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.2
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
FAMU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1%
Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAMU
ALST
FAMU
ALST
ML
55%
16-13
65%
20-11
71%
17-7
76%
19-6
ATS
48%
14-15
65%
20-11
71%
17-7
76%
19-6
TTL
76%
22-7
52%
16-15
100%
24-0
100%
25-0
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