DELAWARE STATE
HORNETSDSU
8-23 | Road
68
MORGAN STATE
BEARSMORG
14-16 | Home
82
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
18%
BEARS
82%
HORNETS
--
BEARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Morgan State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MORG -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)
DSU By 1-7 points
8.0%
DSU By 8-14 points
2.2%
MORG By 1-7 points
20.1%
MORG By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Delaware State
61
DELAWARE STATE
Morgan State
73
MORGAN STATE
Simulated Score
Delaware State
DELAWARE STATE
Morgan State
MORGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (+2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u154.5
Win
Proj Total: 134.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
DSU @ MORG
75 - 70
Feb 21, 2026
DSU @ MORG
68 - 82
Jan 17, 2026
MORG @ DSU
80 - 79
Mar 3, 2025
DSU @ MORG
81 - 87
Feb 3, 2025
MORG @ DSU
82 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+148.8% more
Morgan State: 4.3
vs
Delaware State: 1.7
Rebounding (L5)
+57.1% more
Morgan State: 39.4
vs
Delaware State: 25.1
Assists (L5)
+38.5% more
Morgan State: 13.2
vs
Delaware State: 9.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+9.0%
Morgan State: 35.4%
vs
Delaware State: 26.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DSU Score
61.0
68
MORG Score
73.0
82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.4 / 26.4
35.0 / 21.0
Assists
13.2 / 9.5
19.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.3 / 1.7
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.4 / 39.7
46.0 / 39.0
Free Throw %
75.0 / 68.8
74.0 / 65.0
Rebounding
39.4 / 25.1
44.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.2 / 6.6
4.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 13.9
14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DSU
8-23-0
(25.8%)
Margin: -9.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
MORG
Advantage
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DSU
9-17-0
(34.6%)
Margin: -9.3
ATS +/-: -3.1
MORG
Advantage
14-12-1
(53.8%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DSU
7-19-0
O: 26.9% / U: 73.1%
Total +/-: -5.3
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MORG
DSU
MORG
DSU
ML
50%
14-14
60%
18-12
58%
14-10
75%
18-6
ATS
50%
14-14
60%
18-12
58%
14-10
72%
18-7
TTL
50%
14-14
57%
17-13
100%
24-0
100%
25-0
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