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UT MARTIN

SKYHAWKSUTM

22-11  |  Road

65
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 3:20 PM ET
Jack Stephens Center
View Odds Details →

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

12-20  |  Home

67
AI Model Win Probability
SKYHAWKS
68%
📊
TROJANS
32%
SKYHAWKS --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Little Rock)
SkyhawksUTM (-3.5) 0 TrojansLR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Skyhawks Cover

18.4%

Trojans Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

UTM By 1-7 points

12.2%

UTM By 8-14 points

4.0%

LR By 1-7 points

24.3%

LR By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
73
UT MARTIN
82
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
UT MARTIN
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o136.5 Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 UTM @ LR 65 - 67
Feb 3, 2026 LR @ UTM 52 - 55
Mar 6, 2025 UTM @ LR 77 - 82
Feb 1, 2025 UTM @ LR 57 - 75
Jan 2, 2025 LR @ UTM 57 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.1% more
Little Rock: 13.7 vs UT Martin: 11.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.8%
Little Rock: 36.5% vs UT Martin: 29.7%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.0%
Little Rock: 42.9% vs UT Martin: 40.0%
Steals (L5) +46.5% more
UT Martin: 11.4 vs Little Rock: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTM Score 73.0 65
LR Score 82.0 67
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.5 / 29.7 43.0 / 29.0
Assists 13.7 / 11.4 12.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.0 / 4.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 40.0 49.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 65.0 / 65.2 61.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 36.9 / 37.5 32.0 / 45.0
Steals 6.1 / 11.4 5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 13.9 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
26%MONEY74%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTM Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTM Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +1.6
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0% Total +/-: -8.2
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
UTM
LR
UTM
ML
52% 16-15
69% 22-10
68% 17-8
69% 20-9
ATS
45% 14-17
56% 18-14
68% 17-8
69% 20-9
TTL
58% 18-13
44% 14-18
100% 25-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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