Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Hornets @ Wildcats ALST @ BCU

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

10-22  |  Road

71
FINAL
Thu, Feb 19 • 2:30 PM ET
Moore Gymnasium (FL)
View Odds Details →

BETHUNE-COOKMAN

WILDCATSBCU

17-15  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
40%
📊
WILDCATS
60%
HORNETS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
125.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Alabama State)
HornetsALST (-3.5) 0 WildcatsBCU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

54.0%

Wildcats Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)

ALST By 1-7 points

26.2%

ALST By 8-14 points

16.9%

BCU By 1-7 points

24.3%

BCU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
ALABAMA STATE
62
BETHUNE-COOKMAN
Simulated Score
ALABAMA STATE
BETHUNE-COOKMAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 19, 2026 ALST @ BCU 71 - 82
Jan 31, 2026 BCU @ ALST 69 - 54
Feb 24, 2025 BCU @ ALST 70 - 68
Feb 1, 2025 ALST @ BCU 64 - 67
Feb 26, 2024 ALST @ BCU 84 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +25.1% more
Alabama State: 8.4 vs Bethune-Cookman: 6.3
Rebounding (L5) +12.5% more
Alabama State: 44.0 vs Bethune-Cookman: 38.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.2%
Alabama State: 76.3% vs Bethune-Cookman: 69.1%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Alabama State: 32.4% vs Bethune-Cookman: 26.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALST Score 63.0 71
BCU Score 62.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 26.9 / 32.4 44.0 / 27.0
Assists 13.8 / 13.6 16.0 / 8.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 41.4 50.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 69.1 / 76.3 69.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 44.0 40.0 / 36.0
Steals 6.3 / 8.4 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 14.4 8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
BCU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
BCU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -1.6 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
BCU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BCU
ALST
BCU
ALST
ML
68% 21-10
65% 20-11
79% 22-6
76% 19-6
ATS
65% 20-11
65% 20-11
79% 22-6
76% 19-6
TTL
48% 15-16
52% 16-15
100% 28-0
100% 25-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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