SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
REDHAWKSSEMO
20-13 | Road
56
UT MARTIN
SKYHAWKSUTM
22-11 | Home
53
AI Model Win Probability
REDHAWKS
55%
SKYHAWKS
45%
REDHAWKS
--
SKYHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Southeast Missouri State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SEMO -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEMO)
SEMO By 1-7 points
27.4%
SEMO By 8-14 points
21.6%
UTM By 1-7 points
20.1%
UTM By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Southeast Missouri State
74
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
UT Martin
70
UT MARTIN
Simulated Score
Southeast Missouri State
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
UT Martin
UT MARTIN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Redhawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 144.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 17, 2026
SEMO @ UTM
56 - 53
Jan 20, 2026
UTM @ SEMO
50 - 66
Jan 30, 2025
UTM @ SEMO
79 - 90
Jan 4, 2025
SEMO @ UTM
63 - 66
Feb 24, 2024
UTM @ SEMO
82 - 72
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+38.8% more
Southeast Missouri State: 4.8
vs
UT Martin: 2.9
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.3%
Southeast Missouri State: 67.7%
vs
UT Martin: 65.4%
Steals (L5)
+95.0% more
UT Martin: 11.0
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 5.7
Assists (L5)
+34.0% more
UT Martin: 14.1
vs
Southeast Missouri State: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score
74.0
56
UTM Score
70.0
53
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.1 / 28.8
17.0 / 23.0
Assists
14.1 / 10.5
6.0 / 9.0
Blocks
2.9 / 4.8
6.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
45.9 / 43.7
28.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
65.4 / 67.7
65.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 36.0
42.0 / 51.0
Steals
11.0 / 5.7
12.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.3 / 10.8
13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UTM
Advantage
22-11-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
UTM
Advantage
15-14-0
(51.7%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
13-17-0
O: 43.3% / U: 56.7%
Total +/-: -2.4
UTM
9-21-0
O: 30.0% / U: 70.0%
Total +/-: -8.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTM
SEMO
UTM
SEMO
ML
69%
22-10
64%
21-12
69%
20-9
50%
15-15
ATS
56%
18-14
67%
22-11
69%
20-9
50%
15-15
TTL
44%
14-18
58%
19-14
100%
29-0
100%
30-0
