MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
28-6 | Road
75
NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
10-22 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
83%
DEMONS
17%
COWBOYS
--
DEMONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
90%
Under 0
10%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NWST +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)
MCN By 1-7 points
24.3%
MCN By 8-14 points
26.8%
NWST By 1-7 points
12.2%
NWST By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
McNeese
93
MCNEESE
Northwestern State
84
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Simulated Score
McNeese
MCNEESE
Northwestern State
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cowboys
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Demons (+14.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o138.5
Win
Proj Total: 177.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 16, 2026
MCN @ NWST
75 - 64
Dec 5, 2025
NWST @ MCN
54 - 92
Mar 11, 2025
NWST @ MCN
64 - 83
Feb 8, 2025
NWST @ MCN
50 - 65
Jan 6, 2025
MCN @ NWST
92 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+30.6% more
McNeese: 5.0
vs
Northwestern State: 3.4
Steals (L5)
+17.2% more
McNeese: 10.6
vs
Northwestern State: 8.8
Assists (L5)
+12.6% more
McNeese: 15.8
vs
Northwestern State: 13.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+7.6%
McNeese: 50.4%
vs
Northwestern State: 42.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MCN Score
93.0
75
NWST Score
84.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 36.4
14.0 / 36.0
Assists
13.8 / 15.8
8.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.4 / 5.0
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 50.4
43.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 71.7
81.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
30.5 / 31.5
38.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.8 / 10.6
1.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
10.1 / 8.1
13.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NWST
MCN
NWST
MCN
ML
68%
21-10
67%
22-11
77%
23-7
88%
28-4
ATS
68%
21-10
76%
25-8
77%
23-7
88%
28-4
TTL
39%
12-19
42%
14-19
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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