Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Trojans @ Golden Eagles TROY @ USM

TROY

TROJANSTROY

22-12  |  Road

65
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 3:45 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

19-16  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
65%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
35%
TROJANS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Southern Miss)
TrojansTROY (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trojans Cover

0.3%

Golden Eagles Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

TROY By 1-7 points

0.2%

TROY By 8-14 points

0.0%

USM By 1-7 points

1.7%

USM By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
45
TROY
73
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
TROY
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Golden Eagles (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 USM @ TROY 70 - 78
Feb 14, 2026 TROY @ USM 65 - 69
Jan 14, 2026 USM @ TROY 65 - 91
Feb 28, 2025 TROY @ USM 70 - 58
Jan 27, 2025 USM @ TROY 61 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +82.4% more
Southern Miss: 3.2 vs Troy: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +41.3% more
Southern Miss: 14.9 vs Troy: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Southern Miss: 37.3 vs Troy: 33.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.9%
Southern Miss: 42.8% vs Troy: 39.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 45.0 65
USM Score 73.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 33.9 17.0 / 27.0
Assists 10.1 / 13.9 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.2 / 1.8 8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 42.8 / 39.9 40.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 76.2 / 79.4 81.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 33.1 40.0 / 38.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.2 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.9 / 10.5 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
75%MONEY25%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
USM
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: -1.0
USM
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.8
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
TROY
USM
TROY
ML
53% 18-16
59% 20-14
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
ATS
59% 20-14
65% 22-12
74% 25-9
61% 20-13
TTL
68% 23-11
56% 19-15
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Southern Miss Adds Sharpshooter Elliot Tulip to Bolster Perimete…
si 2 weeks, 6 days ago
Cavan Sullivan, 16, Receives First USMNT Call-Up for September-O…
crossingbroad 3 weeks, 1 day ago
USC Freshmen Shine in 49-30 Victory Over Louisiana
si 3 weeks, 4 days ago
USC Trojans Eye Historic Playoff Berth in 2026 with Revamped Gro…
si 2 months ago
Golden Eagles Final Four: 2011 vs. 1988 - Fan Vote Decides Great…
si 2 months ago