Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Catamounts @ Mocs WCU @ UTC

WESTERN CAROLINA

CATAMOUNTSWCU

15-16  |  Road

81
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 12:00 PM ET
McKenzie Arena
View Odds Details →

CHATTANOOGA

MOCSUTC

13-19  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
CATAMOUNTS
50%
📊
MOCS
50%
CATAMOUNTS --
MOCS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
WESTERN CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Western Carolina)
CatamountsWCU (-3.5) 0 MocsUTC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Catamounts Cover

98.6%

Mocs Cover

1.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WCU -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WCU)

WCU By 1-7 points

5.8%

WCU By 8-14 points

15.3%

UTC By 1-7 points

1.1%

UTC By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
91
WESTERN CAROLINA
69
CHATTANOOGA
Simulated Score
WESTERN CAROLINA
CHATTANOOGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Catamounts Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Catamounts (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o151.5 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 WCU @ UTC 81 - 76
Jan 17, 2026 UTC @ WCU 90 - 82
Feb 19, 2025 WCU @ UTC 86 - 91
Jan 29, 2025 UTC @ WCU 84 - 60
Mar 2, 2024 WCU @ UTC 82 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +46.7% more
Western Carolina: 6.6 vs Chattanooga: 3.5
Rebounding (L5) +13.0% more
Western Carolina: 37.2 vs Chattanooga: 32.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
Western Carolina: 38.3% vs Chattanooga: 32.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Western Carolina: 47.5% vs Chattanooga: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WCU Score 91.0 81
UTC Score 69.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 38.3 29.0 / 32.0
Assists 12.6 / 13.2 19.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.9 / 2.9 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.3 / 47.5 49.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.3 / 61.5 100.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 32.4 / 37.2 26.0 / 41.0
Steals 3.5 / 6.6 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 9.2 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WCU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
UTC
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WCU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: +1.8
UTC
12-17-0 (41.4%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
WCU
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
UTC
16-13-0
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTC
WCU
UTC
WCU
ML
48% 15-16
63% 19-11
53% 16-14
76% 22-7
ATS
52% 16-15
73% 22-8
55% 17-14
77% 23-7
TTL
77% 24-7
67% 20-10
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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