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ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

13-19  |  Road

61
FINAL
Sat, Feb 14 • 11:30 AM ET
Dunn-Oliver Acadome
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA STATE

HORNETSALST

10-22  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
80%
📊
HORNETS
20%
GOLDEN LIONS --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Alabama State)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 HornetsALST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

1.4%

Hornets Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALST -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)

UAPB By 1-7 points

1.1%

UAPB By 8-14 points

0.1%

ALST By 1-7 points

5.8%

ALST By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
52
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
74
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hornets Win
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hornets (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u168.5 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 14, 2026 UAPB @ ALST 61 - 79
Jan 5, 2026 ALST @ UAPB 79 - 90
Feb 15, 2025 ALST @ UAPB 75 - 63
Jan 6, 2025 UAPB @ ALST 91 - 93
Feb 17, 2024 UAPB @ ALST 80 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.7% more
Alabama State: 15.0 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 11.4
Steals (L5) +24.6% more
Alabama State: 7.7 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 6.2
Rebounding (L5) +16.8% more
Alabama State: 38.9 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 33.3
Assists (L5) +31.2% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 15.1 vs Alabama State: 10.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 52.0 61
ALST Score 74.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.4 / 42.7 22.0 / 33.0
Assists 10.4 / 15.1 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.4 3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 39.0 / 49.6 42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 64.1 / 76.4 86.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 38.9 / 33.3 39.0 / 30.0
Steals 7.7 / 6.2 12.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 11.4 11.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
ALST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
ALST
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -4.1 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
UAPB
ALST
UAPB
ML
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
76% 19-6
73% 19-7
ATS
65% 20-11
73% 22-8-1
76% 19-6
73% 19-7
TTL
52% 16-15
68% 21-10
100% 25-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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